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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 122.55

+4.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Mark Peterson CPA who wrote (98255)	2/12/1999 6:06:00 PM
From: Paul Merriwether	Read Replies (7) of 176387

Mark Let me pose a question to you(esp. since you are a CPA). Assume that you had $100,000 in funds that you could invest for the long term(say 10 years). Assume zero inflation. If you were to put this money in a riskless environment, say a CD, at the end of 10 years you would have: 100000(1.05)^10 = 162889.46 To compare it to your investment decision you put your $100000 into Dell computers. You would be able to buy 1110 shares(at this "beaten down to the ground" price of $90). Now take the most optimistic assumption of Dell bottom line earnings growing, sequentially year after year @50% for the next 10 years. You would make: 100000+1110(.93+.931.5+.93*2.25+....)=159527.61 Wouldn't you be better off holding your money in a CD if you had a 10 year time frame? As I see it, you would be better off by about $2800! And this is for LONG term investing! If you had a shorter time frame, you would be MUCH worse off holding Dell. I realize that Dell does not disburse its income as "dividends". In fact they do stock buybacks instead, which prevents taxable income to the shareholders(and its a perfectly legitimate way of rewarding their investors). However, the $$$s required for the buyback ulitmately come from theri earnigns which are capped by the amount above. I would love to argue with anyone challenging my generous assumption of a 50% sequential qrowth rate FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS! Also, am discounting all effects of momentum traders. My guess is that such effects will be "averaged out" over a 10 year period. (GOD I HOPE SO!!!). Given all this, why would you "draw a line in the sand"? ps: may not be able to respond to your rebuttal for a couple days. Gotta celebrate Clinton's acquittal on prez. day! ;)

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