VISIO Corp (VSIO): Big ISO 9000 Play Message Board

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Technology Stocks : VISIO Corp (VSIO): Big ISO 9000 Play

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To: John Edwards who wrote (367)	2/12/1999 8:37:00 PM
From: Adam Nash	Read Replies (1) of 522

That review was pretty high level. However, I don't see Autodesk competing well in this market for a couple of reasons: (1) Installed base: Visio has long been the diagramming vendor of choice, and at this point quite a lot of solutions are built on top of it. Autodesk will never admit this, thinking of themselves inherently as top dog, so they will never deploy a "Visio-Compatible" Actrix. I don't mean file formats, I mean VBA scripting. It's part of the same reason that IntelliCAD will never really hurn AutoCAD. (2) Market Segment: I don't think AutoDesk has the mentality to successfully market and sell a $349 product effectively. At some level, they are doing this purely to compete with Visio. It will never hold internal interest as much as their higher margin lines. Eventually, it will lag Visio (more than it already does), because Visio throws everything behind their engine. Just my opinion. AutoDesk was always the competitor Visio was targeting, its just more visible now. I wouldn't give Visio a 40 P/E due to this risk, but I would easily give them 25-30x 1999 earnings, 35, especially in this market.

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