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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: upanddown who wrote (46843)	2/12/1999 9:31:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) of 132070

John T Clarke, just be patient on the semi eq stocks. They are so over valued that DELL is cheap in comparison. AMAT, the gorilla, is reporting next week. There is almost no chance that they are not going to beat estimates of around a nickle. They had pretty much announced 2 qtrs ago that they are going to use one time charge offs to make sure they look like they are in the black. Further more, business had been so bad that it cannot get worse. Now that is half the story. The other half is based on today's stock price, AMAT is trading at 100 PE. Their best year was 1996 during which they earned $1.63. By the time AMAT goes back to record earnings again, that means every fab would have ordered enough equipment to fuel another chip glut. The cycle starts all over again. AMAT will continued to be pushed up, some even projects $100. This will be a great short for those who are willing to wait. NVLS and others are in the same boat. May be one more cycle and wall street would finally realize these are cyclicals, not growth stocks. Ramsey

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