To All, Roger McNamee was on Wall Street Weak Kneed tonight and made a few disingenuous comments about tech stocks. McNamee is never bearish, because he runs high tech money and folks don't send you checks if you are bearish on your sector, so it makes sense that he talks in a way that keeps the checks flowing. But I have never seen him totally ignore reality so completely in so few sentences. Here is where I have a problem with his comments:
1. "Never have things been better in the tech sector." Byron Wien said the same thing in last week's Barron's. Nutso. Never before have we had negative revenues in PCs, workstations, and Large Servers. Now we've had them all hit the skids in one year. Maybe things are not as bad as I see them, but they have certainly been a lot better. Often if not always.
2. Commenting on Dell, he said, "One thing is certain, Dell will continue to gain market share." Uh, Roger Dodger, Dell lost market share last quarter. Continue from when?
3. Commenting on why things are so wonderful, "we have large tech cos. that are well-established and will continue to gain market share." Let's see, Dell we have talked about. Compaq lost market share year over year in the 4th quarter. Intel is getting killed on market share. IBM lost market share last year. Are these little, unestablished cos. Is the Microsoft monopoly the tech sector?
Sad to hear McNamee join the brain dead touts. He is usually a bit wiser, if not any less bullish.
MB |
