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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 122.70+0.2%Nov 18 3:59 PM EST
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To: Keith Howells who wrote (98454)2/12/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: Buster O. Hype  Read Replies (1) of 176387
 
DECIDED TO BUY IN THE MONEY FEB 100 PUTS TODAY ... because

Risk to reward ratio is great. My gut feel is the numbers have been leaked out. Probably even 2 weeks ago. If you look at the charts here in SI, Dell was very much tracking Nasdaq then suddenly it really exploded on ordinary volume. Then it headed down together with the NAZ on heavier volume. Smells like fund distribution. Even Janus 20 has been lightening up. Funds have been selling in the last 3 months. Todays volume is very heavy to just dismiss this as an analyst's wishful thinking.

3 scenarios: 1) Dell reports blowout number like Microsoft. Stock gaps up, then retraces just like Microsoft. 2) Dell reports so-so numbers like last quarter. Stock gaps down, finds support at the 50 day MA. 3) As what the analyst said, revenue number are not that great, stock meets expectation or beats it by a cent or 2 because of stock buybacks, less expenses. Street finally decides Dell is done, and deserves no more than a PE of 30-40. Don't even want to imagine where the stock will head if this happens. Bad thing is, it will probably bring down much of my other tech holdings.

So I'm hedging my other positions with these Dell puts. In case scenario #3 happens, then we may have uncovered the best short play for the year. People have to realize, Dell doesn't have to keep going up to make people money.
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