Carl:
Actually, I agree with you about Winny, 2000. In the great MSFT tradition, it will do just that. (g)
I guess I just see it at the moment as a probable yawn in the marketplace. I could be wrong on that.
I totally disagree with your perception that MU's ability to take market share relates to its production ramp-up ability. That concept makes sense only if the company was a monopoly, if it could produce product at a profit and if there was no glut.
MU's ramp will proceed faster than the other competitors? Well they better get moving as Hyundai, as an example, expects to double production at certain of its plants over the next 3-4 months.
The TXN problems are going to take a lot of dollars and considerable time. I will bet you that MU talks, but doesn't act on this. It is a ludicrous proposition, as I've previously explained. If the cash gets spent to upgrade, then it just puts more product into an already glutted market, which depresses prices more. The market for memory isn't expanding much and the supply is. No cash equals a debt-inspired melt. Check out the interest costs and tell me how they get paid under your scenario. Watch for plenty of chatter and negligible letting of contracts over the next few months.
Opening additional fabs is not required. Shrink is adding too much product as it is. End demand is not growing. These are nasty facts, but they are facts.
The company has created a shovel full of bad news for itself during this last few weeks. The short position is minimal, so there is no longer a big pool of cannon fodder with which to run up the stock. Worse, some big April showers are showing up on the funds' radar screens, and they all will want to be out of the way before they arrive. The fundamentals are non-existent. The stock is just entering the meat grinder.
Best, Earlie |
