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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (6295)	2/13/1999 1:15:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Speaking of the Titanic, here's the rub: The Dow must make a new high, and within 7 trading sessions (before or after), the number of new highs must exceed the number of new highs. Confirmation signals are: (written in 1988) - a ratio approach might help here 1.declines exceed 1,000 two days running with one day a 4:1 ratio of declines to advances or declines exceed 1,000 in four of the past seven sessions 2. One of the major averages closes down five days in a row 3. Five days where new lows exceed new highs, or the number of new highs drops to 10 or less 4. The day after a Titanic signal or a negative divergence is an outside day This is paraphrased from a Formula Research article. Nelson Freeburg filtered the Titanic with an indicator that improves the signals (many Titanic signals are false). That is by using the Carlton Lutts signal, which requires that three year Treasury notes be above their levels of 26 weeks before. Even then the signal can be early. Vitas

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