MB,
well, I kin see stuff is slowin' down, for sure. But the data so far is nothing like, say, the semiconductor capital equipment industry, or the DRAM industry, over the past couple of years ... now those guys hit the wall. I agree with you trends don't look good. But folks like Ingram Micro are still up in sales 20% (though they didn't hit earnings forecasts), and I'm sure Dell's sales will be up quite a bit, probably assisted by a bit of income statement / balance sheet sleight of hand.
Sooner or later, capital spending will hit the wall, and totally independently, Y2K will hit like a freight train derailing ... then we'll likely see some pretty horrific earnings reports from the leading tech stocks.
But with the current surreal tech stock valuations, it shouldn't take bad earnings reports to break the NDX down big. All it needs is one small child to point out to his father, "daddy, that man isn't wearing anything" ... <g>
Peter |
