Hi Jock- "Lower rates of growth..."
Thank you for your post, but I sincerely don't understand parts of it.
You response to post 98523 with Dell's statements regarding growth are inconsistent as the post says Dell will exceed 17-19 growth... significantly. Your post focuses in on the 17 percent growth, for the rest of the PC industry. Dell will exceed that, as 98523 mentions.
Analyst Kurlak would tank Intel every now and then. Isn't Intel a monster too? Also, it is not necessarily money moving out... lots of daytraders and investment houses are buying and selling all day long on this stock, known as churn. When the downgrades appear, then I think you can say that is long term money moving out. No downgrades yet.
Also, thanx for the info on Dan Niles. I have been looking for the trails of his track record, but I only saw his accurate call of the Compaq channel meltdown early in 1998.
Congratulations for making your short call today, but I think you are in a risky position for the next few weeks. It appears you may not understand what Dell has done and why they are so successful and your fear of increased competition does not take into account their pioneering business and distribution model... the computers are really secondary. If anyone could be a threat, it would be Gateway, but they don't seem to be on the pulse of corporate America like Dell and Dell seems to understand how to leverage the internet against it's model. Do you know about their custom web sites for corporate customers? Do you know about their parts and distribution system? Do you know how their site ranks in terms of # of times visited? Do you know about their recent expansion into storage systems? Do you know the market potential for storage systems for the next 5 years?
If you knew, I think your response would have been different. You should read up on them.
All in my opinion and is not a recommendation to buy or sell a stock.
Jon :) |
