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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 133.20+5.7%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: FR1 who wrote (98617)2/13/1999 1:35:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) of 176387
 
Franz, numbers are always appreciated, but your logic here is all screwed up:

So if DELL does report the projected $5.4 billion, then their growth rate will have dropped to 44.5% from last year's 55%. In order for DELL to surprise and hold its own, they would have to report $5.8 billion (55% increase in sales).

You are saying that they will not make the grade. Dell will report somewhere close to the $5.4 billion and show a dramatic drop in % growth from 55% down to 44.5% implying that they are losing market share in a big way.

1. The growth rate of the industry was somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 - 15% for the year. A company grower faster than that rate must, by mathematical certainty be gaining market share.

2. Nobody in his right mind could expect a company to grow at 3 - 4 times the industry growth rate indefinitely. It is a mathematical impossibility. Most analysts believe that Dell's 5 year growth rate is somewhere in the neighborhood of 30%.

3. Dell was not projected to do $5.8BB -- the Nile projections were $5,468.4 BB for the quarter (46.3% increase y/y). So to claim that Dell needed to exceed $5.8BB to surprise makes no sense if we assume anything over an expectation to be a surprise.

TTFN,
CTC
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