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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (6322)	2/13/1999 2:48:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) of 99985

James .. Re calling tops and bottoms. Seems to me that in a uptrend calling a top is very important .. calling bottoms during a uptrend doesn't take much talent <g> and one can afford to be wrong as often as one wants to be <g>. One current trend that I've noted is the slopes of the 20 day and 50 day averages. These slopes are driving further and further from the zero line .. in other words when the trend is down it is down faster than it was years ago and when it is up it is also faster. Again the trend is intensifying. I believe that this trend is in place because of internet stock trading. The system has become defensive toward this trend .. All over the exchange system there are stories about different types of trading being curbed. I consider this to be signs of an upcoming system wide overload/crash. The oscillations can only get just so wide and then BLAMMMMM. Anyway, with the pattern in place and growing, I see roughly a 70% probability that the current downtrend will take out the Oct. lows. If we do then the importance of calling a bottom will become very high again. FWIW Gersh

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