All: Well, the markets' tech stocks continued down today.
Although there were some big losers, the general market
averages did rather well considering everything. However,
the stochastics of the major indexes continue to break down
as well as many of tech stocks stochastics.
Intel fell into my 149 to 152 support area today that I had
put on the BBs quite some time back. It is a relatively
important support area with 141 1/2 to 142 being even more
important - as it is at the neckline of a potential head and
shoulders bearish pattern - should Intel ever get to this
price area. The drastic decline of Intel's volume on this
last top compared to its previous "left shoulder" top is
very critical to identifying this pattern. But, first things
first, we are not anywhere near there yet - and don't know
for sure that we will get there. However, again, there is
much breaking down of many technicals not only in the
individual tech stocks, but the market indexes as well. We
need to get a bounce in here - and unless we get some kind
of report tomorrow that lends itself to a favorable reading,
I don't expect it to last long.
IBM continues to function well as protection for Intel.
Although it didn't drop as much today as Intel, it has
already fallen more points over the period of time - around
24 plus points in fact as opposed to Intel's 12 points.And
IBM is still close to breaking its support at 145 area.
Some of the small capped stocks appear to be acting well, as
are some of the biotechs in here. Could we be having a
change of leadership?
Finally, again many of the indexes broke their primary
moving average lines today - these indexes were the American
Computer Index, Nasdaq, Russell, and Value Line, The Dow is
to close to it to be called significant and the S&P is still
above it.
Thus, we await tomorrow's unemployment report. I suspect
that regardless how it is presented, the markets will do
with it as they please. On top of everything else, Arch
Crawford is calling for a top between Feb 9-17 with fairly
sharp selloff into March 9. Down 35 to 50 percent next 2
years. He is one of the top 3 in his business over the last
10 years or so in calling these market changes. You have
seen him recently on CNBC, I'm sure.
In conclusion, Intel continues to go to lower lows and lower highs. Before you can be sure of anything, at least you will have to see the previous day's high taken out - for if Intel can't take it out, how will it ever take out the all times highs. That's the safe way. Now, if you like to take risks like traders - then place your bets. Keep in mind that there are more calls out there in Intel than there are puts - regardless of the people who bought all of those Intel Leap puts at 130 and 140. And, I shouldn't have to say to those of you on this BB who have read my notes for some time now what that may mean. Maybe things will be better by April -- but in the meantime, let's hope for a little "nibble" at least (ggg).
jaypeter: Write me for those lottery numbers - I have a system that has never failed - it has yet to win (ggg).
Good trading everybody. Jack |
