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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (23485)	2/13/1999 5:28:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (2) of 50167

Hi Ike: Hope all is well and your staying in shape. Physically as well as financially <gg>. My running has decreased considerably. On the markets. It looks like the interest rates are starting to spike up a little bit. I'd assume this has a correlation with the end of the senate trial of the president. What does this ending really mean to the US economy? Will Rubin resign and go back to Goldman. He indicated no earlier, but that was prior to the Presidents impeachment and impending trial. He's on the cover of Time magazine with Greenspan and the Assistant Tresury Secretary (I may be reading too much into Sumner being on the cover but RR has been letting Sumner recieve more and more press. Usually a sign of preparing to pass the reigns on. (I'd assume if Rubin resigns that would be a negative to the market) Also, the $$ seems to have weakend to much too soon from the .75 rate cut. Although our farmers and manufacturers appreciate it, AG may tighten a little bit (up to 0.5 but in 2 steps and after he's prepared the markets, say in April - July timeframe) to cool off the ecomomy. While I still don't see inflation it doesn't mean he won't cool things down. Also, people seem to miss that Clinton's budget proposals increase spending and where is the $$ to come from. Looks like the surplus will shrink and we'll still be paying a historically high tax rate in relation to GDP. If the surplus shrinks (I don't mind if we pay off debt) it could have more of a negative impact on rates. We still have a Republican Congress and Senate so we should not have a revisit of the spending and inflation of the Carter years but the republicans will probably deal more, in acquising to spending proposals (time will tell on this one). Just my 2 cents on gloom in the market (higher rates will slow down our economy, housing etc.). I'm still hoping Abbey Cohen and Goldmans March outlook (a semi-annual forecast) on the market propells us onward. Tim

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