Finance Home - Yahoo!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top:Business and Finance:Stocks:Technology:Computer Hardware:DELL (Dell Computer Corporation) Help - Add to My Yahoo! - Sign Out
found on aol
by: Sunseeker94 150948 of 150951
Sorry,, This will be a long post,,,,, OK,, First of all, the computer industry is not slowing, it's growing. Especially when you factor in Y2K. Any idea how many computers will have to(repeat,, HAVE TO) be replaced by the end of 1999 ?? This industry is in constant change. The strong will survive because they can adapt to change. As we have seen in the past, inventory is a major element in the streamlining of a
box-maker.(i.e. CPQ's Problems)...DELL is the model, that all competitors try to follow...I believe DELL's inventory turn over has always been low single digit days. That in it's self is the key to their adaptability. When the market changes (prices, volume, etc.), DELL can change with it; faster than any other company in history. In a matter of days, they can change their entire inventory into new products or pricing and so fourth. (Follow?).
That's the beauty behind 'build-to-order'. Why do you think every other box-maker is trying to copy this model?? The other beauty is the fact that DELL, talks directly to the actual consumers. CPQ, HP, IBM , etc., build boxes, wholesale to retailers, and other wholesalers and hope they sell. The turn around in info(likes, dislikes, etc.) is a lot slower and can be misinterpreted up the phone-line. DELL has their finger on the pulse of computer
consumers & because of the build-to-order model, they can switch gears faster than the competition. In many cases, before the competition is even aware of a problem. OK,,,That's my first reason for loving DELL..
Now let's chat about the investment,,, first of all, a previous poster said he/she put $12,500 in DELL in 1995 and now it's worth $400k...Well,, your a little off there.... $10k in DELL in 1995 is worth approximately $3.2 mill today($3,500,000) If your going to boast about something you haven't done, at least do the research first. Take into account 5-6 splits.....1) 1000 share/split = 2000sh, 2)spilt = 4000sh, 3) /spit = 8000sh, 4) /split =
16000sh 5) /split = 32000sh....(we can stop there)..= 32000shares @ $100 = $3,200,000. I'm using $100 share price, because I believe we'll be back there real soon. Now I'm not going to start posting how many 1000's of %'s that is, because I'm sure you get the picture.
So,, now we may have a little hick-up this week,,, Well, I haven't heard any professional say that DELL will miss earnings. And if the revenue has slowed, but earnings growth remains strong, than the business model is still working (you know,,,adaptability to market changes ??).. DELL's share price grew approximately 257% in 1998 alone. Even if DELL's problems are the worst and earnings and growth back off 50% (I doubt that very much) , then we
could still see 100%+ growth in share price per year. Show me a fund that can have that growth rate in a bad year,& I'll put all my money in it !!! Hell, I even take 50% growth! So I'm holding where I am and I don't care what 2 out of 31 analysts have to say, (Yes...31 analysts !!!)...Sorry for the long post, but these are my thoughts. It's all just my opinion that I've acquired through research & I wanted to share them with you all,,,, So let's cut
the crap with """DELL's going in the toilet" & "I talked to an insider who said..." when all your accomplishing is watching yourself type..
Voltaire
|
