Deswell Industries (DSWL) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Deswell Industries (DSWL)

DSWL 3.410

+3.6%

3:58 PM EST

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To: jmt who wrote (1201)	2/13/1999 11:44:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) of 1418

My basic premise is simply that if you evaluated cyclicals during industry downturns, 9 out of 10 would like absolutely miserable - companies not even a value investor would touch. 1 out 10 might still look decent. Deswell is one of those. One of my rules of thumb is that a business is a value when it doesn't even need growth to be a great investment. In other words, if I did an LBO, I could be reasonably certain of earning back my investment in less than 10 years without any growth. I honestly thought Ron was overoptimistic, but it didn't really matter to me because it's a great long term hold below $15 IMO. This is how I invest. It's why I've bought into oil, tobacco, ag equips, ECMs. I don't see a fundamental shift large enough to threaten the business premise, and I definitely don't worry as long as the losses in any of these are manageable. When there aren't losses during the trough, all the better. Mike

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