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Biotech / Medical : T/FIF Portfolio

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To: jeffbas who wrote (558)2/14/1999 3:37:00 AM
From: scaram(o)uche  Read Replies (1) of 1073
 
Jeffrey:

OK, I went ahead and read it......

Yes, biotechs burn money. That doesn't stop some of us from successfully identifying the ones that are burning it effectively to address large markets.

The primary, early proponents for AGPH and SEPR are to be found among the SI biotech nuts. That's the early proponents, not just the early, online proponents.

The name of the game is to find interesting companies early and to discover that they stink before the next guy/gal. If they don't stink, keep investing.

I already answered the "general" GZMO questions, and I can't address the SAGE questions..... I haven't looked at the techniques yet. I have looked at Rosenberg's melanoma vaccine, and my impression..... interesting but moving target.... still largely an academic exercise, adding "modulators" to antigens of interest. I'm interested in the p53 program, but again I haven't looked closely enough now that we've made the trip from $2 to $5/share. That is, once the market cap gets a bit steeper, the analysis needs be a bit more refined. Mine's crude.

Therefore, I conclude that the
paper to be eventually published on what the GZMO CEO called a "next
generation" product in a Boston Globe article will read well.


I presume the same, but my bet still lies with the companies that have more advanced projects.

Assuming that is the
case and from your past experience with this kind of stock, how likely is it that the
stock would get a major boost then, beyond what happened this week on the initial
announcement, or does the initial news get most of the price action?


Don't know how to answer that. By "this kind of stock", one could assume that you are now asking if GZMO has the potential to be an ENMD, and I just can't predict that. I hope not. If you're asking if, given hot lab results, I feel that the price could soar without hype..... people talk with derision about the biotech bubble of '92, but the reactions to sensational lab results at that time were nothing like they are now in the day of the daytrader and internet stocks. Yes, I feel that we could return to a 12/94-like scene where good science is valued. And, we have a lot more of it now.

Since you've owned it during the nice run, why not hedge in some fashion and sit back and watch the sector for a bit. Your crystal ball is as good as mine.

Rick

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