bakunin,>>>Still waiting for any estimate of fair value from y'all. What would it take to get you to sell Tuesday, and, broadly, why? <<<
For many on this thread who have been long term Intel investors selling any part of their Intel holdings in the past for whatever reasons have proven to be major mistakes.
The hypothetical you present, although very interesting, is a complex one for long term holders who may be presented with various implications associated with large profits and can not provide an easy answer for the situation you are suggesting.
For the most part, I would think that long term Intel investors will not even begin to think of selling if Intel goes up on Tuesday less than 6 or 7% (remember, we are only talking about on Tuesday). If Intel went up much more than that (from 7 or 8% to several hundred percentage points), there must be some changes to fundamentals that would have caused that and the situation would have to be reevaluated under those circumstances.
I am perplexed as to why you are asking the question in the first place. I kind of understand that you think the market is overall overvalued, that the PC industry is not healthy, and that Intel road map (Merced et al) is in trouble.
First of all, Intel is now a company that has a stake in more than just the PC economy. It has very quietly and successfully entered into the workstation, server, embedded processors, and other space in advanced technology. BTW, many of the cos in the mainframe business now regard the mainframe as some sort of server - the term mainframe is regarded by many to be associated with dinosaurs.
Assuming that when you say PC industry that you really mean the computer industry or even more broadly the technology sector, I still don't understand your time frame (or your motivation). Do you mean that the (nee) PC Industry is in trouble this quarter, this year, or do you mean forever?
If you mean the PC industry as proxy for your general concerns of the overall market, than I don't really understand why you are choosing to short Intel - arguably one of the greatest companies in the history of this planet.
Your question overall, however, cannot be easily answered because of the shallow nature that you have posed it.
Sincerely,
Mary Cluney
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