Story Filed: Sunday, February 14, 1999 12:30 AM EST
Feb. 14, 1999 (ZDNet News via COMTEX) -- By now, I should know better than to tempt the
Fates. (After all, yours truly picked the N.Y. Giants to win the NFC East, and we know how well
that one turned out!)
But, always a glutton for punishment, I couldn't resist the challenge to dust off my crystal ball and
take a shot at predicting the next 12 months in the computer industry. Here are my picks.
Microsoft goes down
Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson will slap Microsoft with a big fat fine after ruling that the company
violated federal antitrust statutes. But Microsoft will dodge the big bullet because the amiable Reagan
appointee doesn't have it in his ideological DNA to order a breakup. Of course, even that slap on
the hand won't be acceptable to the Redmondians, who will immediately file an appeal and plead
injured innocence.
The Internet: Shake, rattle and rollCha-ching
Web commerce will continue to explode, but at least one high-profile security breach will freak out
the chattering classes. The good news is that it'll only be a blip on the screen.
More busy signals?
Speaking of the Internet, bandwidth is the big wild card that could foil everyone's idyllic predictions.
If the industry can't meet the soaring demand, the Feds will move in with a helping hand.
So much for Portal Power
Woe to the undifferentiated! The New Age gobbleygook about Internet paradigms won't be enough
to compensate for the fact that a lot of companies with .com in their names aren't worth a warm
bucket of spit. Traditional business verities will apply -- at least for a brief second of sanity. The
upshot: Shakeout and consolidation as second- and third-tier players get crushed by the likes of
AOL and Yahoo! Also look for fast up-and-comer Disney to make a big splash.
El cheapo PCs
Name-brand manufacturers will bring to market sub-$400 computers. Great news for computer
literacy around the globe and Internet investors as more people learn to regularly log on.
Piranhas bite Amazon
Jeff Bezos made a monkey out of an 800-pound gorilla in 1998, but can he turn the trick for a
second consecutive year? Why not? Barnes & Noble is too muscle-bound to move that nimbly and
won't be able to deliver a knockout blow. But it won't be all peaches and cream for Amazon, which
will face new challenges from a different quarter. Watch for wannabe-Bezoses to start up sites selling
books and music over the Internet. Can you spell price war?
Takeoff time for digital whatchamacallits
Soaring sales of Internet-enabled wireless appliances will shake up personal computing. Why do you
need expensive, landlocked PCs when inexpensive, mobile digital whatchamacallits do the same
trick? An overstatement, of course, but millions of consumers are going to buy that argument.
So long Lou Gerstner
What's IBM's boss of bosses still got to prove? He'll take the money and go write a book.
Bill Gates: Man of the people
Just like another guy named Bill, the master software mogul will confound the cognoscenti by racking
up great poll numbers despite new revelations about his company's ham-handed practices.
Compaq unchained
This story is about to unfold with a fury. With the Tandem and Digital acquisitions behind him, Field
Marshal Pfeiffer's bulked-up company will deliver a comeuppance to arch-enemy Michael Dell. To a
lesser degree, IBM and Hewlett-Packard will also take it on the chin.
Windows NT: Waiting for Godot
I said Microsoft would miss its 1998 ship-date deadline and I was right. They'll blow their 1999
ship-date deadline and I'll be right again. Watch for Novell to fill the gap as NetWare 5 turns into a
monster hit.
The Little General reappears
Jim Manzi won't stay retired that much longer -- not with all that cyber candy falling into the laps of
20-something multi-millionaires.
Hunkering down for nothing
Survivalist nitwits take to the hills as the countdown to Jan 1, 2000 nears. The only thing they'll have
to fear is the neighborhood raccoon. Y2K will cause limited havoc but a lot of consultants will get fat
and rich as the mania spreads.
You've got mail
One-time Internet poster child Marc Andreessen will take a figurehead job with AOL. Netscape's
employees and shareholders will never forgive him for rocking the boat so he'll stick it out for at least
a year before deciding what's next.
From cow hand to surfer dude
Gateway's Ted Waitt will slip even further into the California sunset as he rediscovers the joy of not
living in North Sioux City, S.D.
A new software big shot
Speaking of Gateway, one alum, David Prais, now of Chumbo.com, is going to turn the software
world on its head. Stay tuned.
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