Democrats Fear Clinton Could Cut Deals With Republicans
By Morton M. Kondracke
Despite the lock-step loyalty Democrats have shown President Clinton on
impeachment, many of them fear he will sell them out this year on budget
issues.
Liberals fear he may cut a deal with Republicans on tax cuts in order to get a
Social Security bill that gives him a legacy other than scandal.
Meantime, New Democrats fear he's in the process of selling out necessary
reforms of Medicare and Social Security in order to keep the Democratic base
happy.
"Given the record, you never can tell with this guy" is a refrain repeated over
and over among Democratic Members and top staffers of both camps about
Clinton.
Doubts are based on Clinton's record in 1996, when he cut deals on welfare
reform and budget balancing with the GOP in order to win re-election. Some
liberals mutter that Clinton already has tilted right to increase defense spending
and speed up missile defenses this year.
Some moderates mutter that Clinton is undercutting such moderates as Sen.
John Breaux (D-La.), head of a bipartisan Medicare commission, who wants to
reform the program to keep it solvent for the long-term future.
Clinton also seems to be siding with traditional Democrats, including labor
unions, in opposing the idea of allowing workers to invest some of their own
Social Security money in equity markets, as suggested by Sens. Daniel Patrick
Moynihan (D-N.Y.) and Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.).
Neither group is sure which of them he will ultimately disappoint and they both
hope that somehow he'll pull a hat trick: Help win back control of Congress in
2000, get Vice President Al Gore elected President and achieve a policy legacy
for himself.
However, top aides to Democratic leaders acknowledge that Clinton's interest in
a legacy and Democratic hopes for Congressional victories diverge.
The best route to Democratic victory in 2000 is to have the Republican 106th
Congress achieve nothing to erase the memory of impeachment-mania that's
currently hurting the GOP.
At the House Democratic retreat this week at Wintergreen, Va., Minority Leader
Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) was quoted as warning colleagues that they could
not be seen as the party of obstruction this year.
Still, Democrats will pursue a strategy of "our way or no way" -- demanding
GOP capitulation on key policy issues and practicing "principled obstruction"
of "bad policy."
Thus, Democrats probably will try to block any patients' rights bill that does not
allow lawsuits against HMOs, any partial privatization of Social Security, any
shift from "defined benefit" Medicare and any across-the-board tax cuts.
With a five-seat hold on the House and no filibuster-proof majority in the
Senate, Republicans will find it hard to pass such legislation -- and impossible
to override a presidential veto.
But if Clinton is hungry enough for a legacy, he might just do a deal with the
GOP -- such as reserving 60 percent of future budget surpluses for Social
Security and giving 40 percent of it back in tax cuts.
Such a deal would allow Republicans to escape the "do nothing" brand that
Democrats hope to pin on them and give Clinton the legacy of saving Social
Security in his second term as well as balancing the budget in his first.
Such a scenario is not only dreamed of by Republicans, but also produces night
sweats for some Democrats.
For the moment, though, Democrats have officially put aside their doubts about
Clinton's loyalty to the party because his budget and their polls seem to have
Republicans on the run.
The budget reserves fully 77 percent of future surpluses to extend the solvency
of Social Security and Medicare, leaving just 23 percent for other uses,
including defense increases and targeted tax cuts. By proposing to pay down
the national debt and lowering federal interest payments, Clinton's budget
makes Democrats the "party of fiscal responsibility," say top aides.
Meantime, Republican proposals to cut taxes by 10 percent across the board
and also reduce the "marriage penalty," inheritance taxes and capital gains taxes
can only come at the expense of Medicare and will brand the GOP as fiscally
irresponsible.
Democrats are warmed by polls showing them ahead by 7 to 15 points in their
own pollsters' 2000 generic Congressional ballots and ahead of the GOP on
every issue including taxes.
Top aides say their bosses have been assured by Clinton, Gore and White
House chief of staff John Podesta that Clinton's idea of a legacy is to have Gore
succeed him and Democrats retake Congress.
"After all he's been through, he doesn't like these people," a top Democrat said
about Congressional Republicans.
Moreover, Democrats are comforted by the absence on the White House staff
of the likes of "triangulator" Dick Morris and budget balancer Erskine Bowles.
And yet, Democrats have to wonder -- and they do -- whether a President so
skilled at deception wouldn't deceive them again.
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