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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: Lucretius who wrote (19600)2/14/1999 1:40:00 PM
From: Terry Whitman   of 86076
 
That's why I've got ABX and HM. Silver looks pretty good for the next few days too. Got any 'blue chip' silver mines to suggest. Don't think I wanna play with Fleck's Pan Am penny stock.

The XAU is going to collide with the upper down trend line in the next week or two: decisionpoint.com

I'm gonna be long for it, but will have a stop loss in case it fails it again. XAU is gonna break big one way or the other.

Now about the bond. Only way I can see for it to keep falling is if we have evil 'inflation.' The classic definition of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. AG has supplied the first part with his non-stop printing- but the second part is iffy. I see no shortage of goods. As a matter of fact, I see a glut of goods. What we do have is a shortage of skilled workers. Therefore, wage inflation is what the concern will be.

That scenario may not be so bad for the bond market- but it will slaughter the earnings of most companies. Less pricing power on their goods, and higher expenses on their labor.

When the stock market starts into a free fall, I want to be long (govt.) bonds. Remember, there's a lot of that fresh Greenspam money out there, and it has to go somewhere... A guaranteed 5-6% may look pretty good to those licking their wounds from the tech wreck.

TW
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