Random Musings of a Virgin Trader (was Dell Diary) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Random Musings of a Virgin Trader (was Dell Diary)

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To: powershred who wrote ()	2/14/1999 1:41:00 PM
From: powershred	Read Replies (2) of 210

DELL DIARY....Sunday, 2 days before earnings announcement.. CORRECTION: closed $89.875 and thanks to jhg_in_kc. There definitely were a lot of pissed off shareholders judging by the thread responses. The bears are back gloating again and are further predicting doom to the 40s!....Only if we knew how much of those 66 million traded on friday were short would it shed some light..or were those 66 mil mostly discount buyers...hmmmmm Niles' contention (which was partly to blame for the drop) was that while the company would meet estimates of 0.31, he thinks the quarter would be "soft" which in his mind would mean that DELL would not meet his estimates of $5.5billion in sales; he thinks DELL would come in at $5.2 billion. He is not available for comment nor does the little guys like me know how he extrapolated his numbers in the first place. A bone of contention for most threaders seem to be why the flip flop 2 days before earnings; does he know something we do not? Either way, if he is wrong, we have to thank him for allowing us to board the train again. For this threads' interest and those newbies to the train, we will use $110 as our purchase price. As the months and years pass by, I will try to update this adventure (bad & good). Since I had so much time and hated going thru numbers...I decided to check out DELLs' basic performance anyway....here goes.... Revenues Q 1997 EPS 1998 EPS 1999 EPS Revenues Q1 $1638 .05 $2588 .14 $3920 .24 Revenues Q2 $1690 .06 $2814 .15 $4331 .28 Revenues Q3 $2019 .09 $3188 .17 $4818 .30 Revenues Q4 $2412 .13 $3737 .22 $ ? ? Revenues $7759 .33 $12327 .68 $ ? ? What the heck, well go out of the limb to estimate $5.6 billion in revenues and 0.37 and if Mikey is pretty pissed, add a two for one! The bears' contention: how can this company maintain its nosebleed P/E? how can a boxmaker justify such a premium against the others. PC sales have to be slowing down. Most corporations are waiting for Y2K to pass before spending more on hardware. The bulls' contention: Would mgmt be so myoptic and build all these new plants if the demand was not there? DELL sell via the net...if one can put nosebled ratios on net companies that are NOT even making any money, why not DELL? When were P/E ratios ever a good measure of tech companies? Can't wait for tuesday....... Newbies' Portfolio: 100 shares at $110.......current loss....($2,012.00)

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