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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners

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To: Investor2 who wrote (9223)2/14/1999 2:44:00 PM
From: Richard Estes  Read Replies (1) of 12039
 
THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF STOCK TOPICS at its best or worst. It shows the cheerleading, the blind leading the blind. There were a couple of people who came in to tell them the truth, but they didn't listen. The same story occurs a lot out there. A TA topic that spends most of their time talking stocks have the same dangers.
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Dec 14
Rumor here is that a buy out is in the works in the 10 to 12 dollar range.

Jan 6
I just bought some this morning...can anybody explain to me how the high 52 week is 36 $.....and it went down to under 3$....tried to find out but could not get a reasonable answer to that kind of decline.....any longterm investor here that could fill me in

Jan 6
There was a discrepancy within the audit firm reviewing the financial report for SMTK. This caused a delay in the 2nd Q report, which initially shocked the stock, creating concern and driving the price down. Then 3rd Q reports were delayed. The results, although not terrible, were below expectations, further driving the price down. At the same time, a barrage of law suits came out claiming insider trading. While none proved true, the stock hit bottom. A final sell off at the end of '98 resulted in further decline as investors decided to take the '98 loss on their tax statement.

At this point, I believe it has hit bottom. I think we'll see an increase, especially with rumors that AT&T is courting SMTK.

Jan 7
COLUMBUS, Ohio--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 7, 1999--SmarTalk TeleServices, Inc. (Nasdaq:SMTK - news; the ''Company'') today announced that it has discovered accounting issues that will likely require a restatement of previously reported results for the third quarter ended September 30, 1998 and are expected to have a material adverse effect on such results. The Company has discovered issues that could decrease by approximately $3.6 million the Company's previously reported third quarter revenues of $59.8 million, increase third quarter costs by approximately $2.2 million, and could increase by approximately $0.21 the previously reported third quarter net loss per share of $0.82. These preliminary estimates are currently being reviewed and have not been fully quantified. There can be no assurance that the Company will not discover other accounting issues that could materially adversely affect SmarTalk's restated third quarter financial results.

It is expected that the Company will experience difficulty in financing its liquidity requirements, both in the long and short term. The Company has retained Zolfo Cooper LLC to provide management assistance

Jan 8
Bottom earlier today did indeed turn out to be one hell of a buying opportunity. And it looks like we're even heading higher. Appears that SMTK is undervalued. They are no fly-by-night company. Their distribution system seems quite impressive, including the U.S. Post Offices (which is hugely impressive, what exposure!!!).

Jan 9
Consumer Electronics Show, Las Vegas, Jan. 7-10. SmarTalk There:

Among the most exciting innovation are prepaid cellular cards that will expand the availability of cellular service to consumers. Retailers and other buyers can view this cutting edge technology at the 1999 CES in the wireless area at the Sands Expo and Convention Center. "We are introducing our new prepaid cellular technology which will revolutionize the way people use cellular service," commented Pamela Bennett, manager of corporate communications for SmarTalk. "Our prepaid cellular service provides immediate activation; one low rate for local, long distance and roaming; and a toll free number assigned to the customer at no extra cost. It is a perfect way to budget cellular usage with no monthly bills, no credit checks and no monthly fees."

Jan 9
TWICE with accounting 'irregularities' is bound to be more than the market will tolerate."

Just not accurate. More of accounting 'issue.' Talk to an accountant if you know one. With all the SmarTalk acquisitions, and the peculiar nature of the assets/liabilities such as partially-used calling cards out in the public, surely it's tricky to get it all 'right' the first time around. But once they do get things established, the matter will no longer be an issue.

Jan 14
Very much a turn-around. Market has shouted that SMTK was over-sold. And rumors are flying that a buy-out by AT&T, and another big player, is under way. So not too late to get in. Buy tomorrow after first 15 minutes or so, after a probable initial gap-up calms down.

Good discussion going on over on Yahoo:

Seeing anything but positive would *certainly* be a shock to all those who have purchased SMTK the past days! Yes, I do hope it's tomorrow, and I do hope that it is extremely positive. But even if there isn't any press release, I think SMTK will go a bit higher tomorrow, being still a bit oversold, and with all the building expectations.
Jan17
SMTK: Predictions based on some TA....

Accumulation/Distribution -- this week has been tremendous, unseen any time in past year. Signals good things coming.

Bollinger Bands -- prices like to reach upper band, and price has further upward open space.

CCI -- terrific, no hint of slowing in upward movement.

Envelope -- expect price to at least break above the envelope, but it's not there yet.

MACD -- nice rising direction, already broke above signal line, now heading for 'zero' line, both quite bullish.

Momentum -- terrific, no hint of slowing down.

On Balance Volume -- wonderful, relatively long turn-up this past week.

RSI -- just the slightest hint of slowing down.

Stochastics -- fantastic steady upward movement, with absolutely no hint of slowing down.

Now, if you want to, change to the Weekly charts....

Notice:

Weekly MACD -- shows clearly above signal line, and moving toward zero line, steady upward progress.

Weekly RSI -- good strong steady upward movement.

Weekly Stochastics -- nice turn-up and break through signal line.

FOLKS!!! You could hardly ask for a better TA profile in a stock.

Fundamentally, sure earnings have been bad -- but future earnings prospects look pretty good.

News-wise, sure the lawsuit is not nice at all -- but such a lawsuit is not a grave matter, and the last time this happened to SMTK the following day actually saw a price rise in the stock! (go take a look back there). Additionally, the extended weekend will have a further deflating of the urgency of the lawsuit -- the market will think a lot less of it by Tuesday. Thus, I do not anticipate a 'gap down' in the morning, but just some early caution, and a wait-and-see market response. Once buyers of SMTK commence their accumulation in the morning, things will be back on the upward track.

Bottom line: SMTK is still a buy. No reason to sell now. Buying in should still yield a respectable gain in the near term.

Smartalk Teleservices Says Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
Tuesday January 19, 4:55 pm Eastern Time
WASHINGTON, Jan. 29 /PRNewswire/ -- The Nasdaq Stock Market(SM) announced today that SmarTalk TeleServices, Inc. (Nasdaq: SMTKQ - news) was delisted at the close of business on Thursday, January 28, 1999 due to its failure to meet Nasdaq listing maintenance standards. Trading in SmarTalk TeleServices, Inc. had been halted on January 19, 1999, at 4:14 p.m. for News Pending at a last sale price of 1 29/32.

Feb 5
Price(.46), of course, not a pretty picture.

I've written to Senator Orin Hatch, my senator, to intervene in the SMTK fiasco. I pointed out to him that it means far more to me, and many, many others, than the Bill Clinton impeachment.

I think Orin Hatch will indeed do what he can. I suggest that you all write to, or actually contact, your respective senators.

This particular issue, involving AT&T, could be something many senators may want to have some hand in. It may very well prove to have landmark implications.

Let's keep our chins up.
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The last price I can find is .06 on pinksheets. Even good stocks have their cheerleaders and bad information. If people can't make decisions without depending on others, how can they even think about risking hard-earned money? There is no one out there to trust except yourself. There is no one that really cares except yourself.
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