Hi folks,
I've been lurking, and it's good to see the thread pick up again (in
number of posts and optimism !)
I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but there are some questions
which arise out of the recent posts that I'd really like to know the
answers to........
1) SFY's fortunes are destined by the market price of NG. Since these
are presumably driven by supply/demand forces, which are somewhat
seasonal AND influenced by the cost of oil, isn't it likely that
the next few months will see their market prices decline ? And, isn't
a recovery in these at least 12 mos (maybe 2 - 3 years away ?).
2) A number of you keep saying how "great" SFY's management are ?
What is the evidence for this ? (I'm not saying this isn't true, I'd
just like to have some justification. e.g. presumably a "great"
management would have a cash-strong position going into a recession,
would do their utmost to preserve their profits during this period,
and use it as an opportunity to expand their activities at the expense
of other/weaker players ?)
3) Presumably SFY have a lot of debt ? How much of the cashflow is
required to service the debt, and what is their exposure to interest
rate moves ?
4) I also noted a recent comment about SFY's costs increasing......
Really ? I'm gobsmacked ! In a market with declining prices how come
their costs are going up ??????? Shouldn't they be going down if the
company is going to survive ?
I guess these aren't easy questions, but I'd really appreciate it
if you could give me some good reasons to average down (again).
SFY is (was) my largest holding, and is one of three stocks which
is showing a > -70% loss. (The others being TMAR & HMAR). I'd love
to reduce at least one of those big red % signs, but am very scared
of risking more money here.
Thanks
Mark |
