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Microcap & Penny Stocks : ABTX - Agribiotech
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To: LTK007 who wrote (7503)2/14/1999 6:31:00 PM
From: W Shakespeare  Read Replies (3) of 8359
 
Let's count:

1.) Analyst downgrades
2.) Shareholder lawsuits
3.) Failed buyout
4.) Insider selling (due to margin call)
5.) High short interest
6.) Earnings disappointments
7.) Industry growth questioned
8.) Management shakeup
9.) Negative press
10.) Rumors of accounting irregularities and SEC investigations
11.) Long time bulls selling
12.) Institutional selling
13.) Integration problems
14.) Bad market conditions

Did I miss anything? Almost every conceivable negative factor is built into this stock's price. I see a bottom here. The negative attitude of even the most ardent of the stock's bull tells me that this is the time to buy. Too many expected this stock to be a cakewalk into big profits.
There is definitely a negative bias towards the seed industry. Monsanto is beaten to death with negative stories every day. But the bears are forgetting something: we are talking about food. The world's population is growing and people will need to be fed. There will be down cycles but the bottom line is the same: people need to eat. As the world's economies grow, people will demand more meat and diary products. That will also put a strain on food production. The governments can moan all they want: without genetic enhancements there will not be enough food. The only way to break the laws of Malthusian economics is through technology. Monsanto holds all the bargaining chips.
Likewise, ABTX holds the bargaining chips in its sector. Both ABTX and Monsanto will be swallowed by larger fish in the next few years. The idea of owning agricultural monopolies will appeal to the larger companies.
I have also learned a lesson owning ABTX. Ignore short term fluctuations if the fundamentals remain solid. Ignore the ranting and ravings of those who seek short term gain over long term appreciation. Buy when the short-term outlook is most bleak. IMHO, we have reached that point.
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