Technical Analysis. Technical Analysis Terminology. AXC as of 2/12/99.
Terminology summarized from the most excellent Meta Stock User's Manual. Commentary Edited from the Expert Advisor in my Meta Stock program.
Notes and Comments: My impression is that the AXC bulls are disheartened against a background of pessimism in the larger market. This is bullish. The greatest bulk of the buying volume of this up trend occurred between 3 and 3.5, and consequently there is little likelihood of great selling pressure at this point. Since Friday's close was at 3.5, the big bulls must be waiting for a down tick to get in at this level. It would be unrealistic to expect to get in much lower. Who's going to call me on this?
Charts etc. can sometimes help to focus the intuition. TA generally is an attempt to quantify the psychology of a market. I will post this information from time to time for what it's worth. Comments and suggestions welcome.
The following list consists only of those Technical Indicators I find useful. There are dozens of others!
Bollinger Bands. A type of envelope (an envelope is the area between two trendlines, for example between two moving averages) where envelopes are plotted at standard deviation (see below) levels above and below a moving average. Here: Number of periods: 20; simple moving average.
Bollinger Bands are 361.03% wider than normal. Suggests high volatility and probability of volatility decreasing and prices entering a trading range. (The probability of prices consolidating toward a less volatile trading range increases the longer the bands are abnormally wide. The bands have been this wide for 25 periods). On 2/12 AXC closed below the upper band by 46.8%.
Candlesticks: Candlestick charts display the open, high, low, and closing prices in a form similar to a modern-day bar chart, with the Open and Close forming the top and bottom of a box which is white if the Open is lower than the Close, black if the reverse. The box is supposed to indicate where the most significant trading took place. I use a version called Candlevolume, which makes the box proportional in width to its percentage of the total volume displayed on the chart so as to show at a glance the relationship between price and volume.
A black body occurred. Although the shape is of no special importance to candlestick charting, the shape shows that the downside momentum had a little strength.
Cande Momentum Oscillator: (see Momentum Indicators, Relative Strength Indicator) Uses data from both up and down days; calculates on unsmoothed data (shows extremes); scale is between +100 and -100. Overbought is above 50, oversold -50.
Current Value: 22.6415
Chaikin Money Flow: Created by summing the values of the Accumulation/Distribution Line for 21 periods and dividing by a 21 period sum of the volume. Based on the assumption that market strength is usually accompanied by prices closing in the upper half of their daily range with increasing volume; weakness the reverse. If prices consistently close in the upper half of their daily high/low range on increased volume, then the indicator will be positive; negative the reverse. Provides excellent confirmation signals of trendline and support/resistance breakouts. For example, if a security's prices have recently penetrated a downward sloping trendline (signaling a potential trend reversal), one might want to wait for further confirmation by allowing the indicator to cross above the zero line.
Currently: Crossed above 0 on 1/26 and has held steady since then, although at almost exactly 0. Still, this is based on averages, and this supposedly very reliable indicator is still telling us that the [up] trend is real and intact. Current Value: .04
Directional Movement: Involves plotting the 14-period + DI (Demand Index: combines price and volume in a very complicated calculation) and the 14-period -DI on top of each other. Positions are taken by buying when the +DI rises above the -DI, and selling the reverse. (There are methods for eliminating false indications.)
The last signal was a Buy 30 periods ago.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): calculated by subtracting the value of a 0.075 (26-period) exponential moving average from a 0.15 (12-period) exponential moving average. The signal line is a 9-period dotted exponential moving average. A sell is generated when the MACD falls below its 9-period signal line, a buy by the reverse.
Currently bearish, trading below signal line which it crossed 3 periods ago, not overbought, but not oversold either, no divergences.
Momentum Indicators: The momentum of a security is the ratio of the day's price compared to the price x-time periods previous. (Stochastic Oscillator, Relative Strength Index, MACD)
Moving Averages: A moving average is a method of calculating the average value of a security's price over a period of time. An average is taken for a fixed period of time and moves forward each period that elapses. (for example: 21-day moving average of closing highs)
Relative Strength Index: (RSI) Compares the internal strength of a single security using the formula: RSI equals 100 minus 100 over 1 plus an average of upward price change over an average of downward price change. The RSI is a price-following oscillator that ranges between 0 and 100. Tops above 70, bottoms below 30, usually in advance.
Current value: 56.17, This is neither topping nor bottoming territory, but it is the lowest value in the last 14 periods, and that is bearish. The last signal was a sell 2/2. (Half a point if you'd sold then.)
Standard Deviation: A statistical measurement of volatility, measures the standard deviation from an average price. Standard Deviation Channel plots two parallel lines above and below an x-period linear regression trendline. Linear Regression is a statistical tool used to predict future values from past values. A linear regression trendline plots a straight line through prices so as to minimize the distances between the prices and the resulting trendline.
Current standard deviation plotting from 12/31/98 is to 6.77 on the upside, downside 2
Current standard deviation plotting from 10/21/96 is to 5.14 on the upside, downside to below 0.
Current standard deviation plotting from 1/30/96 is to 6.74 on the upside, downside to below 0.
NOTE: If this indicator is as accurate for the next run up as it was for the last one, the next run up should go to 6.75+/-.
Stochastic Oscillator: compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading range over the last x-time periods. Ranges between 0% and 100%. 0% shows that the security's close was the lowest price that the security has traded during the preceding x-time periods. 100% the highest. Overbought above 80, oversold below 20.
Currently 29.8845
Support and Resistance Levels: Support at levels where more investors find the stock a bargain than think of it as a sinking ship; resistance at levels where more investors are previous bargain hunters who got stung and hope to get out at breakeven levels than are those who are of the belief that the stock has bottomed and is in an uptrend. Found by drawing trendlines across the chart parallel to the x-axis from significant highs and lows.
Last Support at 3.50
Previous Support 3.50
Last Resistance at 3.875
Previous Resistance at 5.67
Note: Resistance is probably going to be non-stop all the way to 7.
Statistical Analysis: Analyzes a variety of statistics to determine the trend.
Current: The current slope of the close is positive moving lower indicating weakness or a slowdown of the medium term uptrend. Note: What this really means is that the medium term trend should not have been plotted using the short term upward burst. Higher than normal volatility around the trend indicating that traders are probably not in agreement. (see Chaikin Money Flow above)
Tushar Chande:
Price Bias: upwards
Short Term: moving
Intermediate Term: trending
Note: extraordinary price action to the upside
PS: vulnerable to a correction to 2.38
Projected upper bound is: 4.45
Projected lower bound is: 2.65
Projected closing price is: 3.55
Equis Trend Analysis:
Summary:
The current market condition for AMPEX is Very Bullish Still!.
The close is above it's 200 period moving average
The close is above it's 90 period moving average
The close is above it's 30 period moving average.
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