>>Your post highlights the main point of one of my posts a few days ago- "One person says one thing and another person says something else"-- who is right? Beats me. Especially when they all sound like they have expertise on the subject.<<
You're absolutely right -- it is very difficult to understand almost any technology without a tremendous effort.
I'm in worse shape than that -- I not only have to make sure I understand the technology in these companies, I have to make sure that I understand the company itself before I'll invest a penny of my money. This severely limits the number of companies I can invest in given that there are only so many hours in a day to do research.
I personally only invest in things I either understand or am willing to spend the time to understand. However, I realize that many folks don't do this. And perhaps TA, or some other theory, works well for them. I certainly don't have any magic answers -- I just know what I can live with and what works for me.
In any case, I don't deny that there is some type of Camino problem. Of course, I can't confirm it either -- I only have access to publicly held documents. I can tell you how I view it. My likely worst-case scenario for Rambus has never been "Intel punts" -- because I believe that Intel would have tremendous trouble punting Rambus because Rambus solves some huge technical problems that Intel needs badly to be solved and that no one else is solving. My worst-case scenario for Rambus has always been that the company would execute very badly and for that reason not only slip the wide deployment of Rambus products but also anger Intel and the DRAM manufacturers so much that an ABR (Anything But Rambus) mentality started to take root.
I did take the news that Rambus earnings would be flat in the next few quarters as good news because it showed that the company was very serious about gearing up to help with production. Likewise, I don't see Camino slipping a few months as a major problem -- I'm actually glad that Rambus has the extra time to help the deployment go smoothly.
If I could call a bottom on this company, I wouldn't be accumulating (as I have since it it the low 80's). But I can't...I'm simply not smart enough. For this reason, I'm taking all of the talks of delays as a buying opportunity -- because at this point I don't see how delays help Rambus's enemies (DDR, etc.) because of the fundamental problems these technologies have at higher speeds.
I realize that this note will probably be dismissed as yet another "tech-head" or "super-bull" mindlessly promoting Rambus. And I've already exceeded my quota for posting, so I'm not quite sure why I'm doing this. But I can tell you that even with Rambus constituting a large position in my portfolio, I actively root for the stock to keep falling because I want to buy more. If I'm wrong, it will cost me a great deal in the long-run. But I don't believe I'm wrong -- and I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is.
But in the end, concerning your being able to tell who's right and who's wrong about specific issues, all I know to tell you is that the only way I know to solve the problem is to get into the details of the company and its products. Otherwise, you're at the mercy of whoever posts the most or posts the most convincingly.
Please note: whatever I do, I promise not to post the most!
My best, |
