..and the ANSWER IS- 'Kiss my Ass-et'.AS Dell goes global the mystery continues.
*****MUST READ****
Scott:
Thanks for that article,now here is something I found this morning.Also keep in mind what the analysts are saying (sequential growth etc) is totally irrelevant in the larger scheme of things as you will from some of the highlighted points below.Even if Dell had a 100% growth in revenues and earnings around the world these idiots will come up with something,like they may say the 'E' in DELL is crooked and therefore for the P/E is quite unjustifiable and the price too high.
It is important for us investors to know what exactly is going on so that we don't get taken in by these analysts. We know the story,we know who is doing what and where and that is all there is to know nothing else really matters.The stock price may get jerked around by these manipulators as we know from experiences from the past but the schmoes will have to get up pretty early in the morning to try and jerk around the company.
Some of the important points to remember here about DELL is.
Mother-lode
According to IDC, Dell's U.S. and worldwide shipments in the fourth quarter jumped 56 percent over the same quarter in 1997, compared with 21 percent for the industry in the U.S. and 15.4 percent worldwide.
Worldwide, Compaq accounted for 14.8 percent of PC sales in 1998, up from 14.2 percent in 1997. No. 2 IBM slipped from a 9 percent share to 8.8 percent, while Dell closed in on IBM, growing from 5.9 percent to 8.5 percent in 1998, IDC estimated.
Other finer points
Point-1.
According to IDC, Dell's U.S. and worldwide shipments in the fourth quarter jumped 56 percent over the same quarter in 1997, compared with 21 percent for the industry in the U.S. and 15.4 percent worldwide.
Point-2
Dell executives say the company should continue to grow at several times the industry's rate, which would keep Dell on track to become a $40 billion computer company early next century. That expectation was voiced last year by Vice Chairman Mort Topfer.
Point-3
Compaq retains its lead over No. 2 Dell in U.S. market share: 16.7 percent to Dell's 13.2 percent. But Dell is closing the gap. At the end of 1997, Compaq had 16.9 percent vs. 9.3 percent for Dell, according to IDC.
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As Dell goes global ...
The quarterly question is about to be answered: How fast is the Central Texas computer company growing?
By Jerry Mahoney
American-Statesman Staff
Published: Feb. 15, 1999
Bonnie Nuss, who by her own reckoning hopped aboard the Dell Computer Corp. bandwagon relatively late, believes there is still lots of headroom for the company and its high-flying stock.
The latest evidence, she predicts, will be presented Tuesday when Dell reports results for its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended Jan. 27.
"I think they're going to blow them away," said Nuss, an Austin free-lance writer who first bought Dell stock in October 1997.
While they are less exuberant than Nuss, many Wall Street analysts also expect strong year-end numbers from Dell. The consensus of 31 analysts surveyed by First Call Corp. is 31 cents per share for the quarter, which would be a 55 percent jump over the fourth quarter a year ago, adjusted for stock splits.
Analysts expect Dell to report fourth-quarter revenue of about $5.3 billion, a 43 percent improvement over the same quarter last year. For the year, which was Dell's fiscal 1999, analysts expect revenue of $18 billion, or 46 percent above last year's $12.3 billion.
Its habit of meeting or exceeding Wall Street's estimates has made Dell a favorite with investors and one of the most closely watched technology stocks. That helps explain the turbulence that the stock price shows as Dell's quarterly earnings reports loom.
An 8 percent surge to $108 on Feb. 1 was attributed in part to expectations of strong earnings and rumors that the company would announce a stock split Tuesday.
On Friday, Dell's shares plunged 12 percent to $89.87 1/2 after an analyst revised his earlier optimistic estimate for the company's revenues.
Dell executives say the company should continue to grow at several times the industry's rate, which would keep Dell on track to become a $40 billion computer company early next century. That expectation was voiced last year by Vice Chairman Mort Topfer.
Dell made major strides toward that goal in its 1999 fiscal year, opening new manufacturing plants in Austin and Limerick, Ireland, while beginning construction of a third Irish plant. Irish workers build computers for Africa and the Middle East as well as Europe, which is the second-biggest PC market after North America.
In addition, Dell opened a factory, sales facility and customer center in Xiamen, China, and started work on a manufacturing plant in Alvorada, Rio Grande do Sul, in southern Brazil. That facility, the company's ninth manufacturing site, is expected to begin making PCs for South American customers late this year.
The largest private-sector employer in Central Texas, Dell has more than 14,000 employees in Austin and Round Rock and 28,000 overall.
But recent data on worldwide PC sales for 1998 suggest Dell's meteoric rise may be slowing, a factor that also was cited after the stock's fall on Friday.
According to International Data Corp., Dell's fourth-quarter computer shipments in the United States were only 2.6 percent higher than the third quarter. Meanwhile, industry shipments grew 13 percent.
Worldwide, Dell's shipments improved about 13 percent over the third quarter, but total PC shipments surged 23 percent, IDC estimated.
Analysts said Dell may have missed out on the normal jump in holiday PC buying because it doesn't have a sub-$1,000 computer.
While popular, those computers carry a thin profit margin, which is one of the reasons Dell has avoided that market.
"On the other hand . . . they probably should have shown better consumer growth because of the overall strength of the economy," said Bruce Stephen of IDC.
Dell is directing more marketing and advertising at consumers, but that segment still accounts for less than 15 percent of sales. In any case, a Dell spokesman said that year-to-year PC shipments are a better measure of a company's performance than one quarter.
According to IDC, Dell's U.S. and worldwide shipments in the fourth quarter jumped 56 percent over the same quarter in 1997, compared with 21 percent for the industry in the U.S. and 15.4 percent worldwide.
Dell seems to have settled into a pattern over about eight consecutive quarters of exceeding analysts' consensus by a penny or two a share. That was especially noteworthy during the first half of 1998, when its chief PC industry rivals were bleeding from price cuts.
Forced to liquidate huge supplies of unsold computers, Compaq Computer Corp.'s first-quarter profit last year fell 96 percent to only $16 million on $25 billion in sales.
Dell hasn't struggled with inventory build-up because, under its direct model, computers aren't assembled until they are ordered and paid for. In addition, having no inventory of computers with dated technology enables Dell to incorporate the latest microprocessors and other components immediately.
Dell says its online sales total more than $10 million a day.
"The direct model is the main reason I feel so strongly about Dell," said Nuss, the Austin investor.
But many PC companies now take orders for computers over the phone and via the Internet, and that has reduced some of Dell's advantage, said Cody Acree of Southwest Securities.
"Compaq is now doing well over $1 million a day direct, and I think it is taking away a certain amount of Dell's upside," he said.
Compaq retains its lead over No. 2 Dell in U.S. market share: 16.7 percent to Dell's 13.2 percent. But Dell is closing the gap. At the end of 1997, Compaq had 16.9 percent vs. 9.3 percent for Dell, according to IDC.
Worldwide, Compaq accounted for 14.8 percent of PC sales in 1998, up from 14.2 percent in 1997. No. 2 IBM slipped from a 9 percent share to 8.8 percent, while Dell closed in on IBM, growing from 5.9 percent to 8.5 percent in 1998, IDC estimated.
(Courtesy:Austin American Statesman)
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