Here is an opinion from a 76 year old retiree who has been following (and archiving) this thread since last July. I became interested in the concept of plastic pallets due to circumstances having nothing to do with CABEC. I have visited the CABEC plant twice, last June and at the Stockholders' meeting. Michael gave me three hours of his time in June. The presentation he made at the Stockholders' meeting was consistent with, but even more detailed than what he told me in June, except it did seem to me he spent more time on the operational aspects of the “smart chip” in June. IMO it is the most critical (vulnerable, operationally?) part of his overall leasing control plan. His patents on the molding machine are very innovative (near revolutionary) but are straightforward applications of thermodynamic physical laws, coupled with the brain of a man who escaped thinking inside the box. That, coupled with his most recent and again, innovative manufacturing method for reducing the cost of creating molds (explained/shown at the Stockholder's meeting) bode well for the technical aspects of the products.
After spending probably 125-150 hours on the internet (aside from monitoring the thread) over the past six months, plus interviewing three Distribution companies in the Kansas City area, confirming such things as number of pallets used for some operations, costs of leasing, aggravations of wooden pallets, opinions on whether plastic is the wave of the future, and simply reading the pallet -mall WWW site on a continuing basis (BORING!), I'm still convinced of the merits of this system. In fact it is the idea that Michael has envisioned vertically integrating the entire system that makes this whole thing attractive. The patents alone, provided some one else wanted to build the machines, would net him a nice royalty stream, but he has visualized the whole banana, and apparently isn't going to let go of that vision.
Don't ask me how, but I came into possession of a sample of the nestable pallet. I put it in my garage and beat the tar out of it with a six pound sledge. Did I damage it? Sure. Is it still usable? Yeah. Is it reparable? Yes, as I concentrated on one quadrant only, which once replaced, results in a “good as new” pallet. The design of the “block” pallet (also four quadrant elements), the real money maker,should, by it's dessign, be much sturdier than the nestable IMO. Michael says a pallet is good for “x” trips (I forget the figure-16?), but replace the quadrants one by one, and it goes on forever, if the chip ID remains intact.
Now, provided:
-Pace is real, has deep pockets for extremely heavy up front costs, and isn't taking too big a bite out of the cake, and
-Pace produces a really good management anda knowlegeable, operationally oriented, marketing team, and
-Michael's health, vigor and enthusiasm holds out, and
-no one with lots of money and a big legal staff, is able to patent, and/or build around, his patents to beat him to, or dilute his market segment potential, and
-marketing does not outstrip production growth too badly, leaving a bad taste for prospective new users (I have also had that experience-terrible), and
-the smart chip and it's application scheme really works reasonably close to it's hype (they rarely do), and
-no snakes are lurking in the weeds, left over from the Curton spectacle, and
-many other what ifs, including old Murphy, then,
my prognostication (from a guy that, 4 years ago, got out and stayed out, and is still out of the stock market because it was overdue to bomb!!) is that we are looking at profit later than Mr. John estimates, but nonetheless a $15.00 (minimum) stock within three years. That's based on reducing Michael's cash flow estimates by at least 60 percent, and “ramp-up” of production by 30 percent, time-wise. If you can't wait that long, take your “about to happen near term profit”, then why waste your time further. I have invested in less than 100,000 shares under 10 cents (I'm not greedy and heck, I probably won't be here in three years, anyway), but I expect those shares to grow into one million dollars, given reasonable patience. If they don't, so be it. I buy BB stuff with casino money instead of using the slots, which I used to be addicted to, and you know what the ROI is there.
This will be my only posting. I'll check the price once a week from now on. I have obsessed on this long enough. Fishing season is approaching.
One last note. ojoni's entrance into the thread brought back the memory of seeing and hearing “wee Bonnie Baker” in 1938, singing that song on the stage of the old Tower Theater in K.C., with Mr. Tucker's big band sound. Also saw “ole blue Eyes” that summer, singing with the Dorsey Brothers' band (now that was Big Band!). He (and me) were very young then.
LOL to all.
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