RocketMan, Cable will win for sure because both Satellite and DSL suffer from the same disadvantage: Too expensive, too slow and too much delay. Plus Cable has already had a lead. With AT&T footing the bill and pushing the technology, cable will win for sure.
I am not worried about if cable will win or not. I am worried about how
fast can @Home grow and how long the cable is closed for competitors. If AOL gets cable for free, @Home's advantage is gone.
Never project a company's growth linearly. In the case of AOL, even if it has 17M customers, it doesn't mean it will grow like it did in the past. It is TOO EASY to drop AOL and switch to cable once cable's availibility becomes widespread. A customer invests almost nothing in AOL, except for a 56K modem card. However, once they switch to @Home, they have to invest $100+ for a setop box and networking card. My point is, it is easy for AOL to win 17M, but it is also easy for them to lose it. Easy come, easy go.
AOL will grow in the near term, 2-3 years, AOL will eventually capture
30M subscribers. But in the mean time, if ATHM executes their plan successfully, it will also capture 30M by 2001. After that ATHM will
grow to 100M while AOL plateaus and then shrinks.
The key to @Home's success is: In 2005 cable becomes main stream for universal community medium. Telephony line becomes antique. In 2010, kids will have to go to a tech museum to see what a phone line is. |
