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Gold/Mining/Energy : Yogen Fruz IT'S ALIVE, IT'S ALIVE
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To: Marc Fortier who wrote (1162)2/15/1999 3:52:00 PM
From: yogi bare  Read Replies (1) of 2453
 
Marc,

Butterfat Prices (approx)

Q4 (year End) 06/01/98 - 08/31/98 (Earnings released on 11/20/98)

June 5 $1.75/lb
June 12 $1.90/lb
June 19 $1.95/lb
June 26 $2.00/lb
July 3 $2.00/lb
July 10 $2.00/lb
July 17 $2.00/lb
July 24 $2.10/lb
July 31 $2.12/lb
Aug 7 $2.15/lb
Aug 14 $2.15/lb
Aug 21 $2.15/lb
Aug 28 $2.32/lb

Q1 Butterfat prices(09/01/98 - 11/30/98)- Earnings released 01/29/99

Sept 4 $2.80/lb
Sept 11 $2.80/lb
Sept 17 $2.80/lb
Sept 24 $2.80/lb
Oct 2 $2.60/lb
Oct 9 $2.35/lb
Oct 16 $2.30/lb
Oct 23 $2.28/lb
Oct 30 $2.22/lb
Nov 6 $2.12/lb
Nov 13 $1.75/lb
Nov 20 $1.45/lb
Nov 27 $1.20/lb

Q2 Results for period 12/01/98 - 02/28/99(Earnings release 04/99 ???)

Dec 04 $1.40/lb
Dec 11 $1.40/lb
Dec 18 $1.48/lb
Dec 24 $1.48/lb
Dec 31 $1.41/lb
Jan 08 $1.41/lb
Jan 15 $1.41/lb
Jan 22 $1.41/lb
Jan 28 $1.38/lb
Feb 05 $1.28/lb
Feb 12 $1.28/lb
Feb 19 TBA

As you can see from above (all figures are not exact but as close as I could get) there is some correlation between butterfat prices, earnings, and stock price. How much of an impact butterfat has on earnings and cost of product is still unknown (this is the magic question ).

If butterfat only accounts for 5% of cost of unit/product than the above is not that significant. But if butterfat plays a key role in reducing product costs (lower butterfat price = higher margins)....you can see the sharp decline in butterfat prices for the current quarter (upcoming earnings release for Q2) could make things interesting sometime in late April 1999!!!

Hope that answers your question.

Yogi....
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