But in the mean time, if ATHM executes their plan successfully, it will also capture 30M by 2001.
Jing, I don't know if you are refering to ATHM broadband, or projecting all ATHM subs, but that seems to high for broadband. Last Septembet Forrester Research estimated 16M broadband customers by 2002. I don't know how reliable this prediction is, but it is a starting point. So even if ATHM were to capture every one of those, that is less than AOL has today -- 17M paid subs, 50-some M total. And a more likely capture number for ATHM might be 50%, because in spite of internet time I still don't think I will have to go to the San Jose museum to see a dialup modem in 2001 or 2002, as someone else suggested. So, perhaps ATHM might have 10M broadband subs by 2002, and the remaining 6M might be split between DSL, satellite, and wireless. That is hardly a knockout punch. The best that I can see happening for ATHM is that they will create high demand for their service by then, they will still have a barrier to entry in cable, and their will be increasing their share much faster than the dialups. In which case the stock price should do very well, although I'm afraid the current valuation assumes a lot of that will happen.
BWDIK |
