Scottster,
It's about time to change my name back. This bear costume is getting awfully cumbersome, and the itching is ferocious! <g>
Hopefully you bought and held FHT... With my slash and burn strategies, i took a quick profit and didn't hold out for the golden goose.
As for the market, i've got a killer read now that feels right on. I've settled on the idea that Supercycle Wave 5 did indeed begin Oct. 8th, '98. Since then, we had a primary wave 1 up into Nov. 28th, primary wave 2 (zig-zag) down into Dec.14th, primary 3 up into Jan. 8th, primary 4 (contracting triangle) into Jan 28th, and primary 5 up into Feb 1st. That concluded the first cycle wave in this new supercycle begun 10/8/98.
Since Feb.1, the down slide is the A wave of Cycle Wave 2. the first wave of A completed on the low of Feb.2nd, the 2nd wave of A on Feb.4th, the 3rd wave of A on Feb.10th (10:15am), the 4th wave of A on Feb. 12th open (it was a zig-zag, and it blew through where wave 1 ended [1250 SPX area], making this whole 5 waves of A move a beginning diagonal). The drop on friday was the beginning of the 5th wave of A. EWT states that this wave MUST retrace at least 80% of wave 4, but can be no larger than wave 3.
this means the remaining portions of wave 5 of A must take the SPX down to between 1193SPX and 1224SPX. After this is fulfilled, we retrace in a wave B of 2 rally, possibly back up near the highs.
My short term cycle indicators have caught these moves perfectly, recommending a buy on the lows this past thursday and selling the highs on Friday. The next cycle turn is due this Wednesday, with a 16 day cycle low due. This date will be very pivotal for the next 7 trading days, as the next cycle turn is not due until 2/26. If Wednesday's NYSE cash composite lows are taken out anytime before 2/26, a red alert sell signal will be given. Otherwise, a buy and hold strategy should produce generous profits into the 2/26 timeframe, where a 16 day cycle high is due. Shortly thereafter, tumultuous cycle activity will send the market in a sharp direction, which i expect to be down in the C wave of this Cycle wave 2 correction.
After this Cycle Wave 2 correction ends, the Big Kahuna up move begins, probably in mid March.
Regards,
David |
