<<<Just to play devils advocate...what if these three house were going short on the news expecting the price to head far lower>>>
Well Keith, I thought about it. I don't think it's a short by these houses and here's why.
1) Take a look at the trades for the entire month of January for house 2 and 11. DS for the ENTIRE period was up a whopping 15k. That's on a total of about 200,000 shares bought and/or sold by them over the month.
Yorkton was practically non-existent. Their typical daily volume...if they were in the market at all was around maybe 5k. On the whole, Yorkton's involvement was net -3,700 shares on a total volume of about 15,000 shares bought and/or sold over the month.
Now my point is this. If DS or Yorkton was going to short the hell out of it, why wouldn't they do it back when the price was in the high teens? I would say they (or someone they are working for)clearly didn't see this one coming.
And then the day the news comes out and the price is down 50%,.... then they decide to short it? This makes even less sense to me. I doubt that they would make that kind of decision in that short a timeframe (one day), and if they "did know better", then they would have shorted heavily leading up to it.
Furthermore, shorting to the extent of a 1/2 million shares each....and in that short a timeframe....and after it already being down 50%...and with no prior knowledge of what was going on (cuz they didn't short it earlier).....well.....there's just too many improbabilities here I think.
A short? Wow, if someone shorts 1/2 million shares the day the price already drops 50%...well...geeze...bigggggg cajones I would guess. Devil's advocate is fine and good as a place to bounce ideas around, but on this one, I just don't see it.
Much more often, I've seen houses or funds just do a major dumping when they decide they want out. It's not particularly rational, but then again I don't get the impression that they particularly care (although we would all like to think that they do.) Is this a case of this? We'll find out soon enough!
Regards,
Kevin |
