Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era

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To: cfimx who wrote (1265)	2/15/1999 7:11:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (1) of 1722

Twister, >>wayne, did you see that in Barron's, the cumulative breadth chart shows that the market is back to levels it was at in the fall? These are not good signs if good, cheap stuff is getting shredded.<< I'm not much of a technician but I did notice it. I've been casually following the numbers in the last year or so because it's been a good leading indicator of imminent problems in the blue chips too. Based on market action I get the same feeling I had just before the last big market break. And the interest rate fundamentals are also suggesting something could happen soon. I'm not making any investment decisions based on that stuff, but I do confess to being curious because I believe this has been a liquidity market and not a fundamental one. If I am correct, the broader weakness could be telling us that everyone has about as much of their net worth invested in this market as they want. Now we are only going to get new savings (of which there is little), share repurchases (which are being funded by debt in many cases and are limited), foreign inflows and bank, FNMA, FHLMC balance sheet expansion. (The FED) We may be within 10% of a top for a long while. Then again, since I want the market to fall to levels where I don't get a nosebleed this could be wishful thinking. In any event I wouldn't suggest that you make any investment decisions based on advance/decline etc... Wayne

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