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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 111.10-7.8%Jan 20 3:59 PM EST
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To: Gabriel008 who wrote (99779)2/15/1999 8:56:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson  Read Replies (5) of 176387
 
Since you happen to have all the figures Gabriel, and this decline in DELL is due to seasonality, perhaps you can share with the thread the figures for 4Q '97 and compare them to 4Q '98. That way you won't be able to hide your seasonality argument in a rolling year over year figure. Now remember, this year the industry in the US grew by 13 percent over the previous quarter, and DELL grew by a mere three percent. That means that DELL's growth this year for this quarter only was ten percentage points less than the industry. Worldwide the industry grew by 23 percent this year on a quarter over quarter basis. DELL grew by 13 percent. Thus, again, DELL grew by ten percentage points less.

So here is the true critical question that will answer whether or not DELL's stock price is in deep trouble.

Did DELL's unit volume grow by ten percentage points less than the rest of the industry in 4Q 1997 just it did in '98? If not, then DELL is clearly begining to show signs of losing market share of all units sold. It's that simple. Now it's time to answer the question and truly "put the issue to rest."--instead of being mired in some vague sort of self congratulating quicksand telling everyone that you have put the issue to rest when you haven't answered the question.
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