Fine on RNWK to a point, Steve H., but there's more:
Who ends up with WinAMP (Nullsoft) and MP3.com? Currently, loose missiles, but here to stay. WinAMP user base now exceeds 10mm, growing at 1.5mm/mo, moving toward streaming (Shoutcast), security and e-commerce capabilities. MP3.com going mainstream with Sequoia VC financing. Secure formats of IBM, T and Liquid Audio offer consumers low perceived value and are technically questionable.
Can't overemphasize the urgency to RNWK of dealing with MP3.
If RNWK doesn't take "ownership" of MP3, it loses control of the player. What follows is an incursion of third-party "player selectors" that recasts the whole desktop multimedia franchise. All of a sudden, RNWK's server side is "Balkanized"--no longer a "suite"--and the whole thing is up for grabs. As I see it, giving up mindshare is a potentially lethal mistake for RNWK. To secure it, RNWK needs to take over MP3 and do so now.
RNWK is to Net broadcasting what NSCP was to portals. Left it all on the table the first time around. Market so vast RNWK can reposition and relaunch, but brand and mindshare leadership defaulted to BCST. For reasons that aren't quite supported by the facts, you've always underrated BCST, a manifestly shrewd Net gorilla with killer instinct, dead-on aim, and elegant business execution skills. Nobody will catch Pied Pipers Cuban and Wagner.
You're right about AOL and ATHM as likely RNWK suitors. It'll take say, $5B without MP3, $7.5B with MP3.
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