ZOLT Message Board - Msg: 784928

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Non-Tech : ZOLT

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To: Ram who wrote (121)	2/7/1997 4:07:00 PM
From: flyguy	of 970

Ram: GM has had HUGE plans for carbon fiber for a long time. It's just that steel and aluminum are cheap and work too well. The truck drive shaft application has been around for 15+ years! Hercules (now Hexcel) created this application in the late 70s, early 80s. After the meeting, my previous analysis doesn't change. ZOLT in its current position will not be able to compete with the bigger players. You are listening to hype. If I believed that the carbon fiber market was going to grow by 200+% over the next few years, I'd invest in Akzo, Toray, Mitsubishi, etc. as they will be the ones with the muscle to grow and won't let some upstart beat them at their own game. All three of those companies have access to substantial textile acrylic fiber reserves (Mitsubishi and Toray through themselves and Akzo through their close relationship with Courtalds) and have big $$ backing. I think carbon fiber is a growing market, but I just don't see the applications being close enough to real production. The cycle time from conception to mass production is quite long; and automotive and infrastucture have the longest. Good luck. IMO ZOLT will see $20 well before it sees $200. Flyguy.

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