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Technology Stocks : OnSale Inc.

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To: j_b who wrote (3700)2/16/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: B. A. Marlow  Read Replies (1) of 4903
 
Quite correct, j b.

Obviously all the portals, directly or indirectly, are going to control a piece of the action in e-tail. Just look at the USAI/TMCS/LCOS metaphor from last week. We're not playing around here!

Then there's the whole set of "loose missile" technologies, like bots and the patented software of Priceline.com. They render a completely different attitude and approach to the game.

I'll tell you one thing, though. I was stunned to hear on CNBC this morning that WMT generated quarterly sales of something like $41B. That sure points the way to a vast retail marketplace, and it's virtually all domestic business.

You're likely correct in observing that ONSL could do better in the "buzz" department. I just don't see it as a long term problem. I think Kaplan's priority has been to settle into the right niches. Obviously, he's found it a challenge. ONSL's technology seems to be very flexible, and this is a real asset. Also, the first mover advantage, customer base, repeat business metrics and mindshare are merchantable. Everybody knows ONSL.

While I'd much rather bet on ONSL than say, EGGS or BYND, eBay has a distinguishing characteristic: Viral Marketing. That's something that CMGI sort of concentrates on, and ONSL can learn from its success. Hopefully, this can be applied in some way to the direct ONSL businesses, and certainly to the YHOO person-to-person auction business. We'll see. Think the jury will be out for a while on CPQ/Buy.com/Altavista (and presumably, some additional toys to be added).

Which brings us to one final juncture. It's interesting that Federated is acquiring Fingerhut. Coming soon after Bertlesmann/BKS, it reinforces once again that massive consolidation is underway. Unlikely that ONSL will remain independent, and there's huge upside in a takeout.

BAM

P.S. Then, there's PPOD. Know anything about it?

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