"This is why I maintain the opinion that voice over IP will still be several years in coming, knowing what it took to get circuit switched voice over HFC up and running."
Frank / Denver,
I would have to agree with Denver's statement above. Not from the technical perspective that you guys have, but just what I've learned investing in tech stocks for 14 years. We've all read incredible amounts of press releases announcing the great arrival of some new technology. Only to see about 90% of them fade out of sight. The other 10% usually ends up taking at least DOUBLE the estimated time projected to really produce working products.
I'm guessing VoIP will also be at the minimum, two or three years from becoming mainstream. It wouldn't surprise me if it ended up taking five years. In the meantime, MSO's need something that is, "here and now." So IMHO, I'm betting (whoops--investing) that the circuit-switched cable phone makers will do well.
Although I am somewhat anxious for another partnership(like AT&T/TCI), merger, buyout, etc. to be announced. I'm not sure what percentage of the country is covered by TCI and Time Warner, but I would think there are still a lot of customers out there not covered by these two MSOs.
Maybe some MSO's will go it alone, like a few have already, and offer phone service on their own. But I can't imagine them staying completely independent for long. Just a couple of more big announcments will really get the momentum going for some of our, "last mile," investments.
MikeM(From Florida) |
