John,
Let's take a look at Apple's past, current and future:
Past: During 94-95, Apple still had a great chance to gain more PC
market share because Intel chip's math problem. Intel's price between
this period was just like a near-dead chicken floating on the
swimming pool. Its trading range was 55-65, same as for Microsoft.
Compaq, and Dell were in struggle. During that time, I think Apple
was dreaming and lost the excellent opportunity.
Current: Although Apple has been setting everything on the right track
now, it is really a little too late. If Gil has stepped in a year
early, the situation would be brighter for Apple now. The current
Intel and Microsoft are two giants, while Apple is a little man.
What a poor situation for Apple. Two Steve's are very helpful
at this current stage. They could help Apple's culture and fragrament
problems, which are two problems left. Apple is an old company and
behaves like a government, the efficiency is one of the biggest
issues. Therefore, Apple executives have to make it more efficient
via cutting division without any profit. It is impossible for Apple
to become a giant like Microsoft because once the opportunity slips,
it never comes back. If you ask me who make Intel and Microsoft
become giants, I would say Apple and Federal Government's
financial decision makers. Without Apple's generosity and stupidity
in 94-95, and without 401K money, they won't be that huge.
Future: It is clear that Apple is a 2-billions dollars (market value)
company, while its competitors are all about 60 times larger than
Apple. If Apple could become 6-billions dollars company in one year,
then all sharsholders would be very excited since the stock would
reach 48 by then. However, Apple is still a small guy and never ever
to catch Microsoft, or Intel. This is too sad. |
