Not too much to say ...
I have been lurking and enjoying it.
Beginning with 3.00 in Nov 97, I averaged all the way down successfully to .81 for an overall average price of 1.88. Since most of my buying was in the 1 3/8 range, I can now safely pyramid further purchases. Last week I bought a bunch at 3 7/8 yet still have an average price of 2.15.I can assure you that I plan to buy more, this time averaging up, hopefully not too far from current levels.
My price targets are well into the teens within two years. While very unlikely, this is possible this year, however it could also take three years.
In any event, AXC is very much a clearer longer term play. While the float is large for a low priced stock, IMO, it does not have the daily trading volume for effective shorter term swing trading. For this, one needs obvious trading ranges which appear on daily charts.
Also, from my purchase last week, I noticed how difficult it was to fulfill the entire order and how easily prices were moved from relatively small orders. By the same token, today's "big" decline occurred on just above average volume. It could hardly be called a sell-off. In sum, shares seem to be rapidly disappearing for available transactions. The result is, as soon as there is even a small imbalance of buyers or sellers, prices will move rapidly on these small volumes. Today's "sell-off" may have been simply triggered by the general softness in the entire Internet sector.
So who's holding the shares? Well, I am noticing a few 13G's and director purchases showing up. But then these are only those who are mandated to report. What of the others? In the four trading days of Jan 26 - 29, an incredible 26% of available float changed hands, and now - some two weeks later, relatively speaking, nothing.
Mind you, AXC still has no analyst coverage, their newly evolving ambitions have not yet made mass media notice and we are all still awaiting the unfolding of Ed Bramson's Internet strategy story. When these events occur, what will happen then?
Ampex has come off a period of declining revenues for multiple quarters. Now there is a new, possibly excellent quality and price point, product mix (MicroNet) and emerging markets - SANS, Webcasting and Hosting (possibly Webdata-Storage), and Digital TV. In this volatile but low volume context, what will happen to share price in the first quarter of reported revenue increases?
In the run-up from 12/29 (.81) to 1/28 (5.63) a 50% correction would be 3.22 and a 68% correction would be 2.35. These are considered normal corrections with the 50% figure being possibly average correction.
When this correction ends, I still say "seats belts are advised."
Ed Perry
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