Hi Ram.
Thanks very much for the update on the shareholder meeting.
I held Zoltek shares until the spike upwards last summer, and sold at a split-adjusted 42. Even with some of the concerns I had about the company (barriers to competition, limited track record, etc.), IMO, it was a reasonable investment when it was trading at 8 or so. I really liked the way that they were pushing the cost down, and targeting large volume applications. Certainly these were around since CF was invented in the early 60's, but none of the big guys deemed to go after this market, a strategic error IMO. Hence, few (if any) of the fiber producers ever returned cost of capital, and virtually all of the businesses in the US have changed hands at least once. I respect ZOLT for going there.
So, my concern is more with the valuation, than with the company itself.
So, I ask you, on what do you base your estimate of $200/share by the year 2000. Admittedly, I am conservative when it comes to valuations, but the current price already seems to discount them successfully growing capacity to 30 Mlbs + in the next few years, and selling it, which certainly is not a slam dunk.
I wish Zoltek the best, but have to ask myself if I will get a chance to buy back my shares at a lower cost.
Todd |
