I apologize if this was already posted. Found this on the BBC site.
news.bbc.co.uk
Wednesday, January 27, 1999 Published at 16:32 GMT
Sci/Tech
Analysis: Losing the race against time
Developing countries lack the necessary finances to deal with the problem
By BBC News Online's Kevin Anderson in Washington
Many developing countries will lose the race against the Millennium Bug, and the World Bank is working with these countries to develop contingency and crisis management plans.
World Bank officials say that if these countries do not address the problem, they risk crippled economies, social chaos and loss of foreign investment - effects that will cascade through the global economy.
Poorly prepared
In a World Bank survey of 139 developing countries, while 38% had appointed a national Y2K coordinator, only 15% of these countries were taking concrete steps to address the problem. Another 24% were aware of the problem but were taking no action.
Some IT analysts have said that developing countries face less of a risk from the Y2K problem because they are less dependent on technology than highly-industrialised countries, but developing countries are actually more vulnerable.
"The impact could, in fact, be greater because such countries are more dependent on fewer and older computing systems, and they have many more competing national demands for scarce resources," said Hugh Sloan, senior IT officer for the Africa region of the World Bank.
It's not merely competition for scarce domestic resources but also fierce global competition for IT workers, Mr Sloan added.
And many of these countries lack the financial resources to deal with pressing domestic issues such as the financial crises in Asia and Russia, natural disasters in Central America and civil wars in Africa. They do not have the resources to deal with Y2K preparations.
Of the 30 countries that will be hit hardest by the Millennium Bug, 70% suffer from 30% inflation, 30% unemployment and have little or no cash reserves, according to Lou Marcoccio, research director for the Gartner Group.
The IT consulting firm analyses the Y2K preparation of 15,000 companies in 87 countries.
India, Russia, China, the Philippines, Argentina, Venezuela, South Africa and Thailand are among the countries that will face the greatest impact. These countries will experience widespread interruption in air transportation, power, telephone service and government services, according to the Gartner Group.
"Any potential Y2K economic and social instability will ripple throughout the global economy," said Joyce Amenta, Y2K co-ordinator for the World Bank.
Scarce resources
"The resources are just not available to fix all of the problems," said George West, the senior Y2K information manager at the World Bank, and the problem has already started appearing in computer systems.
Ms Amenta said: "we are seeing problems in incorrect projections in loan payments, lost patient records, and prematurely cancelled orders for supplies, such as food, oil machine parts and microcomputer chips, just to name a few."
The World Bank has established a multilateral fund to address Y2K, but the fund has "nowhere near the amount of money which is required," said Ahmad Kamal, Pakistan's ambassador to the United Nations and head of the organisation's Informatics Working Group.
The UK has committed £10m to the fund, and the US has pledged $13m. That amount of money "merely primes the pump," Mr Kamal said.
At the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the World Bank and the US will call on increased international co-operation and more funds to address the Y2K problem.
With a late start and limited resources, developing countries will need to prioritise their Y2K projects, but "with the best of efforts of prioritisation or not, there will be leftovers that will not be compliant," Mr Kamal said.
Money cannot buy time, and the World Bank is working with countries to develop contingency and crisis management plans to lessen the impact of the end of the Millennium.
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