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To: yard_man who wrote (20006)	2/17/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) of 86076

Tippet, 2 weeks ago I launched a trial balloon that Bill Meehan agreed with that EMC, would suffer the mirror reverse of the storage build-up that has occurred for companies doing Y2K testing....The idea being that companies have had to run parallel systems ... one which is Y2K remediated and compliant...and the current one which is not.. When Y2K has come and gone all companies with big IT systems should have excess capacity of the EMC storage products due to them only running one IT system. New orders could be down 50% or more for Q2 and Q3 of 2000. Bill said that this was a theme he had been trying to make to some of his clients....I'll take a look for those posts. But that is the fundamental reason for a slowdown....I believe that there will be an inflection point later this year... probably around the time of the 9 month cycle low and the 4 year cycle low where there will be a market decline and a concomitant change of leadership in which EMC and other Y2K spending beneficiaries will start to underperform stocks such as the ERP stocks ( such as JDEC, SAP, PSFT, Baanf) which have been hurt by a decrease in spending due to the IT budget going to Y2K remediation (testing and fixing) the computer code for mission critical and other computer systems. The ERP stocks, which are in a bear market akin to the networking stocks bear mkt in 1996-97, should start to out perform at this inflection point. It can be dangerous to talk about market developments that if correctly forecasted are still down the road and not tradeable before Feb or March expiration<<VBG>> Yesterday's ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) stock post...with emphasis on JDEC Message 7855152 My original viewpoint that EMC would be one of the companies hurt by the resolution of Y2K Message 7731654 Bill Meehan lends words of support for this EMC Y2K related idea Message 7731688

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