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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 133.35+0.1%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (101754)2/17/1999 12:56:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) of 176387
 
You know, I have never in my life seen a person so hell bent in proving his mathematical incompetence as you. You have been provided with data that clearly show the following:

1. The computer business is highly seasonal, with the bulk of Dell's competitors business being done in the fourth quarter. In fact, both CPQ and GTW show a decrease in sales during the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

2. Dell's sales are also seasonal, but not nearly to the same extent as its competitors. In fact, Dell typically has shown single digit percentage gains in revenues during the first and second quarter, but double digit gains during the third and fourth quarters.

Of course, being a practitioner of advanced sophistry you choose to force data into your preconceived mind set. Apparantly, erecting a specious argument is more satisfying to you than honesty. So when it was pointed out to you that Compaq has a sequential Q4 growth of 22% and that GTW has sequential growth of 31.9% compared to Dell's 14.6% you chose to alternately claim:

1. That this is evidence of Dell's loss of market share; or
2. That this is evidence of lack of Dell's seasonality.

Gabriel Dubois has conclusively demonstrated the fallacy of you market share argument.

I demonstrated the seasonality component. But instead of attempting to understand what was said you choose to twist the argument to suit your own ends. So I repeat the points behind the seasonality issue

If you were to geometrically extrapolate average 4Q sequential growth over the entire year you would come up with these figures:

CPQ .... 121.5%
GTW .... 202.7%
DELL ... 72.5%

These figure clearly demonstrate that all manufacturers results are seasonal, but Dell is much less seasonal than the others. For Dell to be totally without seasonality it would have had a growth rate of about 11.6% for each quarter. But Dell's growth rate for the fourth quarter is slightly higher (at about 14.6%) and its first quarter is well below this (averaging 6.2% over the previous fourth quarter).

*****

Then you go on with this self-congratulatory prattle:

" ... nobody on this thread will admit that the lower revenue growth and lower margins he is predicting will lead to lower eps growth. That would be like, reality, dude? <G>"

Really? It seems to me that I have been discussing this issue for some time with many people on this thread. Slowing growth is inevitable as a company achieves larger and larger market share. Period. End of story.

But not for you. Because you go on to claim some illusory eps disaster.

You remind me of one of those conspiracy buffs. Every time you knock down one of the arguments it is somehow taken as proof of the pervasiveness of the conspiracy.

CTC


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