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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (47560)2/17/1999 3:43:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
To All, The Hewlett disaster. I hate to pass on bad news on HWP and AMAT, as they are both fairly honest cos. that have always treated me fairly when I was a full time analyst and they even invited me to shindigs when I was managing non-tech money full time and doing no tech analysis at all. But, you gots to calls 'em as you sees 'em.

1. The eps growth was awful for a stock with a 27 pe ratio. 7% or so does not fit that valuation model.

2. As usual, Hewlett is the first to admit that pc revenues in the corporate sector were down. And before a Jim Cramer type says that was because Hewlett didn't execute, remember that HWP showed the second highest market share gain of any boxmaker in 1998. This is important. The business pc market sucks. Big time. The market has yet to catch on to this fact in any of the tech stock valuations.

3. 1% revenue gain year over year. Nuff said.

4. Earnings from operations down.

5. Interest income up. Good for them and interest does count. But what kind of multiple do you give to a money market account?

6. Earnings before taxes down 1%.

7. Taxes down. Hmmm, some of that interest in munis?

8. They increased the dividend 14%. Good for them. That is an indicator that their eps are real.

9. Orders down in the US, flat overseas. Ugh!

10. Cash falling.

11. Receivables down. Honesty has to be its own reward. <G>

12. Long term debt declining. Smart cos. deleverage during a down turn.
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