Harry,,first I am don't think this deal is exclusive. I may be wrong so I will call tommorrow to be sure.
On the averaging down, in the IMHO column, I think the thing to do is to wait until the Telephone companies understand the ballgame.
I am totally convinced they are clueless right now. Wait until they do something that adds content. I.e. buys or strikes some major deal with AOL.
In that light, sell and run as fast as you can if a cable or a party related to cable acquires AOL. IMHO the side that owns AOL own the marbles, 56% of all the access accounts in the US. This is what scary. If a cable company buys AOL, they will own 74% of all the access accounts in the US. Now think of all the E commerce, Online banking transactions so on and so forth transacted completely off a telephony infrastructure.
The telephone companies only hope is to buy AOL!!!!!!
1) they can move their part of the 18 million analog dial up accounts
in mass to offset cannibalizing the T1s
2)They deter competition from the CLECs, cable
3) Protect the value of their voice network
4) increase the value of their stock. I believe the market would applaud the combination of network and content.
5) guarantee a place at the E commerce, selling access, enabling e commerce table.
Without the above the telephone RBOCs will have voice a low margin low growth product. AND all the T1 business they can stand at $1,000 a month(which is none).
They are dead and they freaking don't know it |
