Vlad, by rescue fantasy, I refer to any scenario which RELIES on a force OUTSIDE VVUS to solve it's problems; i.e., a larger pharma company stepping in to sell the product they have failed to sell domestically in the face of Viagra. Or, b) an FDA action, such as black boxing, which would inhibit sales of Viagra.
In the meantime, there are realities. Such as the following statement from LW:
'...4Q international revenue down $8.3M, due to delay in int'l approvals and launches...our partners are CURRENTLY HOLDING inventories for these launches, and we DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SHIPMENTS TO THE PARTNERS UNTIL SECOND HALF OF 1999.'
In other words, the channel is filled. Furthermore, LW stated:
'maintaining profit Q1 and Q2, even WITH milestone payments, will be a challenge'.
In other words, he is anticipating, at minimum, $8M LESS in product revenue over the next two quarters, than was achieved in 4Q98, which looks like this:
3Q98: 18M
4Q98: 11.1M
1Q99: 7M (est)
That's called NEGATIVE SEQUENTIAL REVENUE GROWTH. And it's gonna happen this quarter, possibly next, REGARDLESS of EU approval. Without rev. growth, there is no gasoline. Without gasoline, without a 'story' to drive the stock, such as the signing of a domestic partner (that's IF and WHEN), there really is no reason to make an investment in VVUS.
In the meantime, the price will drift to lower lows, as we have witnessed since the CC. |
