Compaq Message Board - Msg: 7882251

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Technology Stocks : Compaq

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To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (48650)	2/17/1999 9:33:00 PM
From: John Koligman	Read Replies (1) of 97611

Elwood - Kelley's scuba tank finally ran out of air and he just surfaced on the Dell thread. Now he is saying he just can't predict 'em like he used to. Previously accurate IDC data is apparently no longer accurate enough<ggg>. It's kind of ironic that he missed the call on CPQ by being way low and also missed the call on Dell by being high... John To: Catcher (102259 ) From: jim kelley Wednesday, Feb 17 1999 8:52PM ET Reply # of 102288 Catcher, Re: Projected earnings this quarter...... IDC preliminary numbers were 92,000 units higher than DELL reported. This translates into 221 million in revenues and inflated my projections of DELL revenues by that amount. Next the drop in ASP from 2400 to 2350 reduced the actual revenues by 110 million dollars. Add the two numbers up and you get 330 million dollar shortfall in revenues. A lot of us were also fooled by the the IDC numbers on the external disk storage market. We believed that this would be accretive and in fact it was not. My verdict is that we have insufficient information to accurately predict DELL's earnings. The error range seems to be about 10%. I believe Kumar and Niles had some guidance that we did not get. So the IDC numbers would not by themselves lead Kumar or Niles to the correct estimate of revenues. Regards, Jim Kelley

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