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Technology Stocks : Silkroad
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To: George Gilder who wrote (202)2/18/1999 1:06:00 PM
From: ahhaha   of 626
 
SR is better than a 10 fold increase if the entire environment is rigged to utilize their potential fully. That isn't true under the backward compatibility scenario. SR seeks backwardization only because they need legitimacy and they need commercial visibility. There is also the issue of the abstract "time to market" criterion.

If what SR has can't get out of the lab in reasonable time, new technologies may leave them in the gate. The new technologies may actually be based on the principles behind Palmer's tinkering. Once it has been established that something significant has been done, even if the only information available indicates vaguely how, there are many hungry individuals that will pursue similar tinkerings and thereby emulate what SR has, but with a patent escaping twist. I don't need to remind anyone of the tribulations of Tesla and Marconi on this.

SilkRoad has been making efforts to apply SR in a way to enhance the existing WDM infrastructure rather than replace it. To some extent perhaps it is this thread that has suggested the "substitute for WDM" tack. Sometimes in order to differentiate we promote without justification. It is the American way.

I believe a two pronged attack is necessary. Embracing WDM is a commercial necessity and the other prong, pursuit of integration of other nascent and complementary technologies, is equally important to differentiate the product for future markets.

Add/drop is definitely on the ropes especially if the developments of Lumenon and Sandia can revolutionize the last mile. SONET can't compete against ATMIP, so it is only a matter of time before it is entirely replaced. ATM will hang on for a decade perhaps only because it's so deeply embedded and companies have to realize yield from past investment regardless of greater economies available from new and proven technologies. ATM made a comeback via cable broadband because of its scalability and because it provides good traffic management. This part of the revival cycle should go on for some years until the ubiquitous worldwide 10mbps desktop to desktop broadband cable delivery is realized. At that time ATM will be completely replaced.
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